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Just when it seemed that there was no stopping the GOP juggernaut, with Republicans aggressively pushing their political agenda in state houses across the country and on the Hill, the Empire State struck back.
The upset victory of Kathy Hochul, a Democrat in one of New York's most conservative Congressional districts, last month turned mainly on one issue-Medicare reform. Apparently, the GOP's austerity plan crafted by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) to address the national debt and deficit that included a dramatic overhaul of Medicare was just too much for voters even in a Republican stronghold like New York's 26th district that stretches from Buffalo to Rochester.
The results in New York have Democrats believing they have hit upon the key to winning in 2012, while Republicans are being forced to rethink their embrace of Ryan's Medicare plan.
"Any election focused on Medicare will be a losing election for Republicans," said Sen. Charles Schumer (D-New York). "Democrats will try to take New York 26 and use it as a blueprint for races nationwide."
The special election race, the first major contest since the GOP-controlled House approved Ryan's 2012 budget plan, saw Hochul surge ahead in the last weeks of the campaign. Hochul, who had trailed significantly in the polls until she made an issue of the GOP plan to "privatize Medicare," captured 47 percent of the vote to Republican Jane Corwin's 43 percent.
We, at TurnerGPA, agree with the political pundits who see Hochul's upset victory in New York along with the defeat of the GOP budget bill in the Senate, as increasing the pressure on the Republicans to compromise on their debt and deficit reduction demands. Certainly, we can hope that there will be a serious move toward bipartisanship in the budget process.
Republican leaders, however, are downplaying the New York special election defeat, arguing that those claiming that the Medicare issue is the GOP's Achilles heel are oversimplifying the facts and overblowing the race's significance.
Still, there is no denying that both parties were heavily invested in the outcome of this special election with total spending topping $6 million. A significant amount of money on the GOP side came from groups like the United States Chamber of Commerce and Karl Rove's American Crossroads. On the Democratic side a new player-House Majority PAC-made its debut spending nearly $400,000 on advertising to help Hochul's cause.
The race also saw heavy-hitters representing both parties getting down and dirty in the trenches. Both House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and majority leader, Eric Cantor (R-Virginia) campaigned in the district for Corwin. Likewise, Nancy Pelosi (D-California) the House Democratic leader and former President Bill Clinton made personal appeals on Hochul's behalf.
The race also put Pelosi, the former House Speaker, back in the political spotlight. The Hill reports that Pelosi "has found a rallying cry of ‘Medicare, Medicare, Medicare' which has pundits wondering how significant a role she will play in the Democrats bid to retake the House in 2012. In her remarks immediately following the election results in New York 26 the Hill noted that Pelosi "mentioned Medicare 22 times."
It would be an understatement to say Democrats' hopes for 2012 were greatly buoyed by the win in New York's 26th district.
"I fundamentally believe that the House of Representatives is in play," said Rep. Steve Israel (D-New York), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee shortly after Hochul's upset victory. "The Democrats can win a majority in November 2012."